Recent peer-reviewed research highlights a shared group of seven countries that are potentially better prepared to endure a large-scale global collapse.
The findings come from two distinct studies. A 2021 report evaluated countries based on their ability to maintain complex societal and technological systems following widespread disruption. Another Risk Analysis publication concentrated on island nations’ survival prospects under severe sunlight reduction scenarios, like those caused by nuclear warfare, volcanic eruptions, or asteroid impacts.
While there is considerable overlap between these studies, the lists are not entirely identical.
New Zealand Ranks Highest in Overall Collapse Resilience
The 2021 assessment focused on identifying areas of enduring societal complexity — nations likely to maintain crucial societal functions despite a breakdown in global integration. This analysis employed data from the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-Gain), which evaluates national exposure and readiness to environmental threats.
Five countries scored prominently when examining factors such as vulnerability and preparedness, food production methods, energy sources, manufacturing capabilities, geographic isolation, and climate adaptation. These were the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Iceland, Australia (particularly Tasmania), and Ireland.
Among them, New Zealand emerged with the strongest overall conditions.
New Zealand scored 6.5 on the initial index, compared to 1.2 for Iceland, 1 for the UK and Australia, and 0.6 for Ireland. Its remote location combined with sufficient agricultural and energy resources contributed strongly to its favorable rating. However, its industrial sector is limited, and the country faces some natural hazard risks.
It is important to note these rankings are starting points rather than guarantees. For instance, while Australia has extensive agricultural land, much of it is grassland not suitable for growing crops, an important distinction when measuring food sustainability.
Australia Tops Survival Prospects After Nuclear Winter
The second study analyzed risks related to nuclear winter scenarios and similar events expected to cause significant sunlight loss and crop failures.
Researchers evaluated 38 island nations under conditions simulating 5, 27, and 150 teragrams of atmospheric soot. They assessed expected impacts on agriculture and fisheries and weighed these against 13 resilience criteria including energy security, infrastructure, manufacturing, healthcare, governance, education, societal unity, and trade capabilities.
Under the most extreme 150-teragram case, Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands maintained food production above the defined survival threshold.
The survival benchmark used was 2,200 kilocalories per person daily — a rough guideline rather than an exact nutritional requirement, which varies between individuals.
Australia stood out with exceptional food production resilience.
In the 150-teragram scenario, its projected food self-sufficiency reached an impressive 16,069 kilocalories per person per day, vastly surpassing the survival limit. The report bluntly stated, “Australia’s food supply buffer is gigantic.” Additionally, the nation’s strong infrastructure, energy access, healthcare system, and defense capacity contributed to its high rating.
Trade and Imports Still Vital Despite Food Stockpiles
One key vulnerability differentiating Australia and New Zealand is their geopolitical alliances. Australia’s close ties with the U.S. and UK could increase risks during nuclear confrontations compared to New Zealand. Both countries heavily depend on imported petroleum, fertilizers, machinery, transport equipment, and spare parts to sustain their agricultural sectors.
Despite a predicted loss of around 60.9% of New Zealand’s food output under the 150-teragram nuclear event, initial food production was well above the 2,200 kcal/day threshold. Moreover, redirecting exports back into the domestic market could further bolster food availability.
For instance, New Zealand’s redirected exports of dairy products—like milk powder, cheese, and butter—would supply about 132% of the nation’s estimated total dietary energy needs in the crisis model.
However, food availability is just one aspect of resilience. Nick Wilson of The Guardian expressed concern that New Zealand may overestimate its security. He emphasized the country’s dependency on imported diesel, pesticides, machinery, and parts critical to agriculture and manufacturing.
A major issue is that New Zealand shut down its only oil refinery in 2022 — leaving it with zero domestic refined fuel production. This makes it entirely reliant on imports for essential fuels.
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