Recent research suggests that Australia’s Indigenous population prior to European settlement was much larger than previously believed, with a median estimate of 2.22 million individuals. This figure exceeds earlier historical estimates by a significant margin and implies a catastrophic decline of approximately 93% from 1788 to 1861.
Colonization commenced in 1788 with Britain’s First Fleet arrival. By the time Indigenous populations were included in early censuses, introduced diseases and violent conflicts had already taken a devastating toll, making those early counts an incomplete indication of original population sizes.
A collaborative research project involving Indigenous partners aimed to bridge these documentation gaps and shed new light on the scale of demographic change following European contact.
Limitations of Previous Population Estimates
Many prior estimates trace back to anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown, who in the 1930s estimated there were around 250,000 Indigenous Australians before colonization.
His calculations overlooked the extensive toll from introduced illnesses, frontier conflicts, and systemic violence—elements now understood to have had far-reaching impacts, indicating that early numbers underestimated the true population considerably.
Historical population ranges have varied from 250,000 up to one million. This new study’s median estimate of 2.22 million surpasses previous figures, with some projections reaching up to seven times higher. Published in Nature Human Behaviour, the study equates this to an average density of about 0.29 persons per square kilometer (or nearly 0.75 per square mile).
Combining Multiple Lines of Evidence
The research team incorporated a variety of sources, including ethnographic data—which captures observations of Indigenous societies—as well as archaeological and genetic findings. They also assessed the environmental carrying capacity of the land to estimate how many people the ecosystems could have supported. Their final assessments relied heavily on genetic modeling corroborated by ethnographic and historical documentation.
The researchers emphasize that integrating several methodologies is vital when reconstructing demographic histories shaped by incomplete or biased records. They also underline the broader societal value of this work. As Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University commented:
“Understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion in 1788 is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation.”
Unveiling the Scale of Loss in Just Seven Decades
The model aligns the initial population estimate with early census data by suggesting an additional 2.06 million deaths from 1788 to 1861—averaging about 28,200 excess deaths annually. By 1861, the Indigenous population had dwindled to roughly 7% of its original size, representing approximately a 93% reduction over 73 years.
Renowned Professor Larissa Behrendt, chair of the advisory committee at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, noted:
“These research findings challenge us to rethink the scale of what happened after 1788. We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonization but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story. But the research also tells us something extraordinary. Our survival is one of Australian history’s most remarkable stories.”
Co-author Distinguished Professor Lynette Russell from Monash University linked these findings to intergenerational trauma and policy implications. Despite population growth since the 1950s, the 2021 census counts only about 37% of the new median estimate. Lead author Associate Professor Alan Williams remarked:
“These devastating findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate their remarkable survival, resilience and recovery over the past century.”
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